The Flood’s NFL Picks: Week 10

Greetings townies and townie-wannabes. After a couple weeks mourning the end of a sweet-and-sour Sox season I’m back to the blogosphere with a new weekly gimmick, an NFL picks column that will hopefully fill the dual-purpose of satisfying your unending need for new time-wasting internet nonsense now that the election’s over, and serving as an outlet for my overconfidence after a hot streak the last few weeks in my internet pick ‘em leagues that’s left me 72-53-5 against the spread so far this year (thus relieving the pressure that could lead me to bet actual money on these games just as I start regressing to the mean). So, without further adieu, here are the picks with home teams in bold

Denver (+3) over Cleveland

The worst passing defense in recent memory. A coach nicknamed Cromeo, who actually had to devote time this week to convincing the press that he makes decisions about who’s starting, not the fans. (His other nickname? Lil Romeo.) One starting quarterback has 8 career passing attempts. The other, according to my buddy Lindsay, hails from the lost tribe of Ugly-Baldwins. Who the hell knows. Take the points.  

Atlanta (-1) over New Orleans

Until he proves me wrong Matt Ryan is on my “don’t bet against this guy” list, especially giving up just 1 point at home against a similarly mediocre-solid team (even if New Orleans needs this game a little bit more).

Tennessee (-3) over Chicago     

Is it possible for a city to have a bigger letdown than going from watching a local son accept the presidency to watching the Titans’ secondary (tied for the NFL lead with 13 picks) accept Rex Grossman’s passes?

Detroit (-6.5) over Jacksonville

Byron Leftwich might lead the 6-2 Steelers into the marquee game of the week, while David Garrard and the 3-5 Jags play in Sunday’s top snoozefest—didn’t see that one coming.

Miami (-9) over Seattle

I rode Miami until last week and I’m starting to think Vegas has overcompensated for being slow on the uptake with this team—that said, I can’t take Seattle on the road against a decent team, even with 9 points.

Green Bay (+2.5) over Minnesota

That half point makes all the difference in the world…which tells you how much confidence I have in this pick.

New England (-4.5) over Buffalo

First off, I’m never going to pick against the Pats, no matter what the spread. It’s the same reason I don’t play fantasy—having your home team and fantasy/pick ‘em fortunes at odds is like a kid being asked by his divorced parents which one he wants to live with—no thanks. Second off, this Pats team is starting to give off signs of going all Dr. Scholl’s on us  (great column from Tony Mazz  this week on taking solace from a frustrating loss last weekend). I don’t think they’re ready to give up that AFC East mantle just yet.

St. Louis (+8) over East Rutherford Jets

It’s taken 9 weeks but people are finally starting to remember that until last year Brett Favre hadn’t had a season where he threw more TDs than picks since 2004, and that building an offensive line through free agency is about as efficient as trying to build a pitching staff that way. I can’t wait until Chad Pennington leads the Fins to a thrilling 4^th quarter comeback over the Jets in week 17 at the Meadowlands to steal that last Wild-Card spot—caaaaaaaaaan’t wait!

Carolina(-9) over Oakland           

Can the NFL send Oakland down to the NCAA like Euro soccer leagues do?

Baltimore (-1) over Houston

Something tells me Joe Flacco’s introduction to Mario Williams is going to go about as well as the time Vanessa brought her janitor-fiance home to meet Dr. Huxtable and the family. But I’m taking them anyway.

Pittsburgh (off the board) over Indianapolis

BYRON! BYRON! BYRON!

Kansas City (+15) over San Diego

15 points is too much, even for Herm Edwards on the road. I think.

East Rutherford Giants (+3) over Philadelphia

Philly’s been screwing with me all season—which means they’ll probably do the same this week and whoop up on the Giants.

Arizona (-9.5) over San Francisco

Kurt Warner has the second best QB rating in football. Yeah, that’s the same thing I said when I first read that.

------THE FLOOD