The Flood’s Picks: Week 11

After a no-great-shakes-but-still-makes-money 9-5 performance last week to bring me to 81-58-5 on the season, I’m back with another week of exciting NFL picks.

     New England (-3) over East Rutherford Jets

Get used to me picking the Pats. I always do, but even with one of the worst injury bug infestations in recent memory (starting QB, safety, linebacker and top 9 RBs) the team is continuing to slowly figure out their new identity. That, and Mangini is yet to show he can outwit a motivated Belichick—look for a confused Favre to make a few key mistakes and the Pats to slug out a too-close-for-comfort 3-7 point win.

     Atlanta (-6) over Denver

See my comments from last week re: not betting against Matt Ryan (until Vegas catches up and overvalues him—which it seems on the verge of with a 6 point spread).

     Cincinnati (+9.0) over Philadelphia

Now that they've figured out that no amount of pouting and underperforming is going to get Marvin Lewis fired, this Cincinnati team has "spread-spoiler" written all over it.

     Chicago (off) over Green Bay

Betting against the home team in an NCF North game is like betting against beer and sausage sales at an NFC North game, but I dunno, just a feeling.

     Houston (+8) over Indianapolis

Double-digit favorites one week and 8 point dogs the next, Vegas has no idea what to make of the Texans. Neither do I, so I’m taking the points.

     New Orleans (-5.5) over Kansas City:

I'm trying to think of something positive to say to Kansas CIty fans. Only two more years of paying Gil Meche?

     Oakland (+10.5) over Miami

A decent showing might be the only thing keeping Al Davis from locking himself in his office for months at a time, storing bottles of his own urine and personally designing a wooden jumbojet wider than a football field is long.

Baltimore (+6.5) over East Rutherford Giants

The best running game against the best run-D. I think the Giants pull this win out, but not by enough to cover.*

*(Note: I changed my mind about this on Saturday afternoon. Originally I had the Giants, with the following comment: Think about how many QBs you'd rather have on your team than Eli Manning. 3? 4? How many of you included Kurt Warner on that list? This is a mad, mad world…

     Tampa Bay (-3.5) over Minnesota

A nice job by Minnesota recovering from 18 turnovers last week. As the most schizophrenic team in football, that means they’ll blow this one on the road. That, or they’ve finally figured it out and can upset a good Tampa team—let’s not pretend any of us has any idea.

     Detroit (+14) over Carolina

It's amazing that the Ford family can do such a terrible job running a football team but such a great job running a profitable, flexible car company that is well situated to deal with America's changing economy and energy needs. Oh wait…well at least they’re not GM. Still, I'll say the same thing I said about the Chiefs getting 15 points last week: 14 is too much, even against the Lions.

     St. Louis (+6.5) over San Francisco

How the ‘Niners are giving up 6.5 points to anyone besides that Little Giants team Rick Moranis coached with his daughter playing linebacker (was I the only one weirded out at the time by the fact that her nickname was Ice Box?), I have no idea. I could see them being this month's St. Louis, putting together inexplicably decent performances for a grand total of 3 weeks, but 6 points is still too much.

     Arizona (-3) over Seattle

Both these teams burned me last week so I say screw 'em both, I'm betting on Mrs. Warner this week.

     San Diego (+4.5) over Pittsburgh

The big story of the week is that Brilliant Ben slyly intuited from his coach’s passive-aggressive press conference comments that he should be, you know, practicing?

     Tennessee (-3) over Jacksonville

Fred "El Cid" Taylor seemed to respond to Del Rio's tough guy routine last week, but I wouldn't expect it to last. (Video hint: dude is pulling a Weekend at Bernie’s on that horse. Also, why is everyone running away from a horseback rider holding just a flag? Also also, the Moors seem to carrying Zulu shields, a la the Lakota warriors in that Anheuser-Busch painting of the Battle of the Little Bighorn. Ahhhh, history)

     Washington (+1.5) over Dallas

I don't understand this spread. Not at all. Unless maybe Tony Romo reacts to having a busted finger the same way Drew Bledsoe did.

     Buffalo (-5) over Cleveland

Any team that plays a good chunk of its home games in another country must be good for a comfortable real home win against an under-coached, under-aggressive, under-performing team, right? Right?

---THE FLOOD